Reality check

Atlanta won its sixth consecutive game yesterday, 6-3 vs. Washington in ten innings. It was the Braves tenth consecutive win on the road and it gave the club three straight road sweeps.

Not bad at all.

Only problem is the Braves return home today and face a must-win situation vs. Florida. If Atlanta doesn’t make it seven straight wins, the reality is the first six won’t matter for much – that’s because Colorado and Philly held on yesterday for one-run victories, moving the Braves that much closer to elimination.

The Braves are five back of Philly with seven games left on the schedule and there really isn’t anything to be done about it. I guess we can hope Philly loses seven straight, but I don’t see that working out so well.

The Braves are only 2.5 back of Colorado. The Rockies have just six games left, so a win tonight would leave the Braves two back with six to play. And a loss would undo all the hard work from these past few days.

If we fall three back with six to play then we might as well be pulling for Philly to act like the Mets from a couple of years back, because that’s what we’ll need to get an invitation to October.

Jair Jurrjens gets the ball tonight vs. Anibal Sanchez. Jurrjens has emerged as one of the best starters in the league while Sanchez is just 3-7. Okay, I’m trying to be optimistic. Sanchez only has three wins, but he’s beaten the Braves twice already this year. And in his most recent outing he tossed eight innings of shutout ball vs. Philly.

In other words, tonight is pretty much it. Jurrjens and the Braves step up again and make it seven wins in a row, or else reality finally begins to set in.

Trivia tidbit: The strong play of Martin Prado has contributed significantly to the Braves postseason push. He scored two runs in yesterday’s victory vs. Washington, giving him at least one run scored in ten consecutive games. That ties him with Shane Victorino, Johnny Damon, and Prince Fielder for the longest such streak in the majors this season.

Braves on verge of another road sweep

Atlanta won its fifth consecutive game last night. The 11-5 victory vs. Washington was also the Braves ninth straight road victory. “It’s getting to be a lot more fun. I think we’re pretty good right now,” said Bobby Cox. Tommy Hanson is pretty good right now, too. The rookie improved to 11-4 after pitching seven strong innings – and he’s only been with the club since the end of June.

It’s been 15 years since Atlanta won ten straight road games, but that’s exactly what the Braves need today. A victory would mean back-to-back-to-back road sweeps for Atlanta – St. Louis, New York, and Washington – and more importantly, it would keep the Braves firmly entrenched in the Wild Card hunt as they return home for the season’s final seven games, regardless of what Colorado does today vs. St. Louis.

St. Louis clinched its division last night and now Tony La Russa can begin resting starters and lining up his rotation for the playoffs, but the Cardinals still have an eye on the league’s best record and home field advantage in the postseason – and La Russa will make sure the Rockies get a good game today.

Derek Lowe will get the ball for Atlanta today vs. Livan Hernandez and the Nationals.

Hernandez is 1-7 with a 7.33 earned run average in his last nine starts, while Lowe has won three consecutive road starts. If all goes well today vs. Washington, then the Braves will return home no worse than 2.5 back of Colorado.

Colorado has an off day on Monday when the Braves begin a three-game set with Florida, and – praise to God – Josh Johnson is pitching today vs. New York, so the Braves will not have to face him at all in that series.

I’m getting way ahead of myself here, but best case scenario is the Rockies lose today and the Braves win today and tomorrow to move within one game with six to play.

On Saturday the Braves probability of winning the Wild Card (click here to see how it’s calculated) was reported by ESPN to be approximately ten percent. Today it’s ticked up to nearly twenty percent.

It could happen.

Trivia tidbit: Atlanta scored four runs vs. Washington during the first inning on Saturday, upping its season total to 77 first inning runs. Thanks to a rotation that has given up only 42 first inning runs, Atlanta has outscored its opponents by 35 runs during the first inning of play this season. That’s the second best advantage in all of baseball. Only the Dodgers have done better, outscoring opponents by 66 runs in the first inning of play.

Vazquez and Braves win fourth straight

The Braves 4-1 victory vs. Washington last night was the club’s fourth consecutive win and it was also the fourth consecutive winning start for pitcher Javier Vazquez, who tossed a complete game three-hitter. Atlanta is still six games back of Philly and 3.5 games back of Colorado, but the Braves refuse to quit.

Colorado got a huge performance from Aaron Cook last night and the Rockies got a 2-1 walk-off win vs. St. Louis. Bobby Cox said of the Cardinals, “They need to beat those mountain boys up a little bit.”

No kidding.

With just nine games left on the schedule, the Braves can ill afford to lose any of them. The club has won 12 of 14 overall, but even if Atlanta keeps up this pace there just aren’t enough games left to catch Colorado unless the Braves get some help from St. Louis, Milwaukee, and LA.

Philly needs to win just four of its last nine games to clinch the N.L. East – which means that even if the Braves won out and closed the season with 13 straight wins, Philly would have to go 3-6 vs. Milwaukee, Houston, and Florida in order for the Braves to tie for the division lead.

That’s just not going to happen.

Atlanta’s only realistic chance is to catch Colorado and to do that we’re still going to need a lot of help. Colorado has just eight games left, and if the Rockies go just 4-4 then the Braves need to finish 8-1 just to force a playoff for the Wild Card.

And while that’s still a long shot, it’s not impossible.

Today’s pitching matchup once again favor the Braves: Tommy Hanson vs. Garrett Mock (3-9, 5.83 ERA). In Colorado, the Braves will be looking for help from Cy Young contender Adam Wainwright who will toe the rubber vs. Ubaldo Jimenez.

Trivia tidbit: Vazquez won his 15th game last night and lowered his earned run average to 2.83, which is currently sixth best in the league. Greg Maddux was the last Braves pitcher with at least 15 wins to post an earned run average that low (2002 – 16 wins, 2.62 ERA). Jair Jurrjens is scheduled to start Monday vs. Florida and he’ll take the mound with 13 wins and a 2.70 earned run average that ranks fourth in the league. If Jurrjens beats the Fish, he’ll get a shot at 15 wins next weekend and conceivably he could give the Braves two pitchers this season with Maddux-like numbers (Derek Lowe already has 15 wins, just not the Maddux-like ERA).